2023. Predictive Technologies in Conflict Prevention: Practical and Policy Considerations for the Multilateral System
Conflict prevention has become increasingly central to the UN’s approach to insecurity and instability, and this shift has brought a greater reliance on data capture technologies to identify and analyse recurrent conflict patterns and forecast potential crises. However, the use of these technologies also poses several challenges. For instance, some possess inconsistencies in the quality of data across space and time which undermine the ability of the UN to accurately predict conflict trends. There are further concerns that data capture technologies used for predictive purposes could have serious security ramifications and could run afoul of mainstream data privacy standards. Additionally, there is always the risk that technologies could be adapted for surveillance purposes in violation of human rights, and there are further concerns regarding ‘automation bias’ – a human tendency to be less critical of suggestions made by automated decision-making systems which could result in an over-reliance on predictive technologies, complicating an organization’s ability to respond effectively in fast-moving and emergent conflict scenarios.